Can Ireland and Bosnia really help us?

Using the same formula that FIFA used for the 2006 World Cup (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding), I have the United States ranked 9th of the 23 teams that have qualified for the 2010 World Cup. 

1. Brazil        59.7
2. Germany   59.3
3. Italy          56.7
4. Spain        56.0
5. England    52.3
6. Argentina  49.7
7. Holland     43.7
8. Mexico     42.0
9. USA         38.0
*The October 2009 ranking is used until the November 2009 is released.
*South Africa will be ranked, and that will drop the US actually to #10.



There are 41 teams still alive or that have qualified for the World Cup.  This is how the rankings look with all those countries that are still available.

1. Brazil       68.7
2. Germany  68.3
3. Italy         65.7
4. Spain       65.0
5. England    60.3
6. Argentina 58.7
7. France     57.7
8. Portugal   56.0
9. Holland    52.0
10. Mexico  45.3
11. USA      42.7
*The October 2009 ranking is used until the November 2009 is released.
*South Africa will be ranked, and that will drop the US actually to #12.

With the point difference from Holland (the current last spot) to the USA, the chance of being seeded looks slim to none.  If there is any chance to be seeded, France and Portugal cannot qualify, the USA must win the next two games, and Holland must lose their next two games (@ Italy and Paraguay at home).  Unless FIFA changes the seeding formula, the USMNT looks very unlikely to be seeded.